Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 13.470207 15.390549 17.449842 19.817953 22.461385 25.316682 28.629435
2025-09-28 10.125272 12.635286 15.532110 19.104806 23.373506 28.290258 34.360756
2025-10-05 8.906302 11.751146 15.188851 19.615212 25.126135 31.721380 40.167191
2025-10-12 7.917402 10.987785 14.854732 20.028156 26.706439 34.969060 45.887959
2025-10-19 6.945102 10.088194 14.196260 19.882148 27.458726 37.107754 50.208892
2025-10-26 6.131184 9.294197 13.573317 19.684111 28.066145 39.023768 54.267840
2025-11-02 5.527122 8.714748 13.165618 19.704858 28.911640 41.232045 58.745979
2025-11-09 5.056386 8.271539 12.894815 19.867837 29.922714 43.667083 63.590184
2025-11-16 4.583979 7.773827 12.493881 19.795464 30.568040 45.594606 67.782564
2025-11-23 4.144823 7.280934 12.052369 19.616000 31.022756 47.243578 71.617782
2025-11-30 3.834060 6.959155 11.837773 19.746856 31.915840 49.525855 76.408923
2025-12-07 3.647202 6.820175 11.890358 20.277733 33.415890 52.726630 82.621561
2025-12-14 3.309514 6.402702 11.477972 20.067307 33.794861 54.325294 86.606468
2025-12-21 2.879291 5.782950 10.687444 19.196123 33.093248 54.268679 88.122242
2025-12-28 2.757826 5.700232 10.781280 19.763327 34.675328 57.716814 95.013178
2026-01-04 2.616561 5.566999 10.776249 20.159117 35.991402 60.795065 101.436993
2026-01-11 2.402334 5.274939 10.470349 20.019314 36.414770 62.482280 105.753419
2026-01-18 2.199507 4.984470 10.143626 19.817598 36.714831 63.971210 109.793181
2026-01-25 2.046767 4.778217 9.953203 19.839356 37.383545 66.063214 114.842982
2026-02-01 1.925648 4.624488 9.847758 20.002984 38.295124 68.572157 120.630509
2026-02-08 1.785154 4.416073 9.622236 19.930295 38.785364 70.396179 125.355289
2026-02-15 1.644247 4.192300 9.349394 19.749726 39.069477 71.876530 129.550714
2026-02-22 1.549376 4.060359 9.247031 19.881373 39.910647 74.312901 135.389763